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The retreat of glaciers since 1850 is well documented and has become an increasingly important climatic issue. Since the end of the Little Ice Age around the year 1850, glaciers worldwide have been retreating. This reduction in the mass of glaciers, referred to by glaciologists as glacier retreat, has been attributed primarily to global climate change. Mid-latitude mountain ranges such as the Himalayas, Alps, Rocky Mountains, Cascade Range, and the southern Andes, as well as isolated tropical summits such as Mount Kilimanjaro in Africa, are showing some of the largest proportionate glacial loss.(IPoCC) (Mölg)
(NSIDC)
The recent substantial retreat and an acceleration of the rate of retreat since 1995 of a number of key outlet glaciers of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, may foreshadow a rise in sea level, having a potentially dramatic effect on coastal regions worldwide.
Glacier mass balance impact on terminus behavior
Crucial to the survival of a glacier is its mass balance, the difference between accumulation and ablation (melting and sublimation). Climate change may cause variations in both temperature and snowfall, causing changes in mass balance. A glacier with a sustained negative balance is out of equilibrium and will retreat. A glacier with sustained positive balance is also out of equilibrium, and will advance to reestablish equilibrium. Currently, there are a few advancing glaciers, all of which are advancing at modest rates. This suggests that they are not far from equilibrium.(Trabant)
The key symptom of a glacier in disequilibrium is thinning along the entire length of the glacier.(Pelto) (Pelto and Hartzell) For example, Easton Glacier (see below) will likely shrink to half its size, but at a slowing rate of reduction, and stabilize at that size, despite the warmer temperature, over a few decades. However, the Grinnell Glacier (pictured above) will shrink at an increasing rate until it disappears. The difference is that the upper section of Easton Glacier remains healthy and snow covered, while even the upper section of the Grinnell Glacier is bare, is melting and has thinned. Small glaciers with minimal altitude gain are most likely to fall into disequilibrium with the climate. Methods for measuring glacier retreat include staking terminus location, global positioning mapping, aerial mapping, and laser altimetry. Tropical glaciersTropical glaciers are located between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, in the region that lies 23° 26′ 22″ north or south of the equator. Tropical glaciers are the most uncommon of all glaciers for a variety of reasons. Firstly, the seasonal change is minimal with temperatures remaining relatively warm year round, resulting in a lack of a colder winter season in which snow and ice can accumulate. Secondly, few taller mountains can be found in these regions upon which enough cold air exists for the establishment of glaciers. All of the glaciers located in the topics are on isolated high mountain peaks. Overall, tropical glaciers are smaller than those found elsewhere and are the most likely glaciers to show rapid response to changing climate patterns. A small temperature increase of only a few degrees can have almost immediate and adverse impact on tropical glaciers.(Jankowski)
A 2002 study determined that if current conditions continue, the glaciers atop Kilimanjaro will disappear sometime between 2015 and 2020.(Thompson, et alia)
A March 2005 report indicated that there is almost no remaining glacial ice on the mountain, and it is the first time in 11,000 years that barren ground has been exposed on portions of the summit.(Guardian)
To the west of Mounts Kilimanjaro and Kenya, the Ruwenzori Range rises to 5,109 m (16,761 ft). Photographic evidence of this mountain range indicates a marked reduction in glacially covered areas over the past century. In the 45-year period between 1955 and 1990, glaciers on the Ruwenzori Range receded about 40%. It is expected that due to their proximity to the heavy moisture of the Congo region, the glaciers in the Ruwenzori Range may recede at a slower rate than those on Kilimanjaro or in Kenya.(Wielochowski2)
Further south in Peru, the Andes are at a higher altitude overall, and there are approximately 722 glaciers covering an area of 723 km² (279 miles²). Research in this region of the Andes is less extensive but indicates an overall glacial retreat of 7% between 1977 and 1983.(USGS4) The Quelccaya Icecap is the largest tropical icecap in the world, and all of the outlet glaciers from the icecap are retreating. In the case of Qori Kalis Glacier, which is Quelccayas' main outlet glacier, the rate of retreat had reached 155 m (508 feet) per year during the three year period of 1995 to 1998. The melting ice has formed a large lake at the front of the glacier since 1983, and bare ground has been exposed for the first time in thousands of years.(Byrd)
Separate from the glaciers of Puncak Jaya, another small icecap known to have existed on the summit of Puncak Trikora completely disappeared sometime between 1939 and 1962.(Allison and Peterson)
Mid-latitude glaciersMid-latitude glaciers are located either between the Tropic of Cancer and the Arctic Circle, or between the Tropic of Capricorn and the Antarctic Circle. These two regions support glacier ice from mountain glaciers, valley glaciers and even smaller icecaps, which are usually located in higher mountainous regions. All of these glaciers are located in mountain ranges, notably the Himalayas; the Alps; Rocky Mountains and Pacific Coast Ranges of North America; the Patagonian Andes in South America; and mountain ranges in the island nation of New Zealand. Glaciers in these latitudes are more widespread and tend to be more massive the closer they are located to the polar regions. These glaciers are the most widely studied over the past 150 years. As is true with the glaciers located in the tropical zone, virtually all the glaciers in the mid-latitudes are in a state of negative mass balance and are retreating. Eastern hemisphereThe World Glacier Monitoring Service reports on changes in the terminus, or lower-elevation end, of glaciers from around the world every five years.(WGMS) In their 1995–2000 edition, they noted the terminal point variations of glaciers across the Alps. Over the five-year period from 1995 to 2000, 103 of 110 glaciers examined in Switzerland, 95 of 99 glaciers in Austria, all 69 glaciers in Italy, and all 6 glaciers in France were in retreat. French glaciers experienced a sharp retreat in the years 1942–53 followed by advances up to 1980, and then further retreat beginning in 1982. As an example, since 1870 the Argentière Glacier and Mount Blanc Glacier have receded by 1,150 (3,772 ft) and 1,400 m (4,593 ft), respectively. The largest glacier in France, the Mer de Glace, which is 11 km (6.85 miles) long and 400 m (1,312 ft) thick, has lost 8.3% of its length, or 1 km (0.6 miles), in 130 years, and thinned by 27%, or 150 m (492 ft), in the midsection of the glacier since 1907. The Bossons Glacier in Chamonix, France, has retreated 1,200 m (3,900 ft) from extents observed in the early 20th century. Other researchers have found that glaciers across the Alps appear to be retreating at a faster rate than a few decades ago. In 2005, of the 91 glaciers observed, 84 were retreating and none were advancing. The Trift Glacier had retreated over 500 m (1,640 ft) just in the three years of 2003 to 2005, which is 10% of its total length. The Grosser Aletsch Glacier, the largest glacier in Switzerland, has retreated 2,600 m (8,530 ft) since 1880. This rate of retreat has also increased since 1980, with 30%, or 800 m (2,625 ft), of the total retreat occurring in the last 20% of the time period.(SFIoTZ) Similarly, of the glaciers in the Italian Alps, only about a third were in retreat in 1980, while by 1999, 89% of these glaciers were retreating. Researchers found that from 2004 to 2005, every glacier in the Italian Alps was retreating.(IGC)
GLOFs have been known to occur in every region of the world where glaciers are located. Continued glacier retreat is expected to create and expand glacial lakes, increasing the danger of future GLOFs. Though the glaciers of the Alps have received more attention from glaciologists than in other areas of Europe, research indicates that throughout most of Europe, glaciers are rapidly retreating. In the Kebnekaise Mountains of northern Sweden, a study of 16 glaciers between 1990 and 2001 found that 14 glaciers were retreating, one was advancing and one was stable.(GSU) During the 20th century, glaciers in Norway retreated overall with brief periods of advance around 1910, 1925 and in the 1990s. In the 1990s, 11 of 25 Norwegian glaciers observed had advanced due to several consecutive winters with above normal precipitation. However, following several consecutive years of little winter precipitation since 2000, and record warmth during the summers of 2002 and 2003, Norwegian glaciers have decreased significantly since the 1990s. By 2005 only 1 of the 25 glaciers monitored in Norway was advancing, two were stationary and 22 were retreating. The Norweigan Engabreen Glacier has retreated 179 m (587 ft) since 1999, while the Brenndalsbreen and Rembesdalsskåka glaciers have retreated 116 m (380 ft) and 206 m (675 ft), respectively, since 2000. The Briksdalsbreen glacier retreated 96 m (314 ft) in 2004 alone—the largest annual retreat recorded for this glacier since monitoring began in 1900. Overall, from 1999 to 2005, Briksdalsbreen retreated 176 m (577 ft).(CICaER)
The Himalayas and other mountain chains of central Asia support large regions that are glaciated. These glaciers provide critical water supplies to arid countries such as Mongolia, western China, Pakistan and Afghanistan. As is true with other glaciers worldwide, the glaciers of Asia are experiencing a rapid decline in mass. The loss of these glaciers would have a tremendous impact on the ecosystem of the region. A WWF report concluded that 67% of all Himalayan glaciers are retreating. In examining 612 glaciers in China between 1950 and 1970, 53% of the glaciers studied were retreating. After 1990, 95% of these glaciers were measured to be retreating, indicating that retreat of these glaciers was becoming more widespread.(Rai, Guring, et alia) Glaciers in the Mount Everest region of the Himalayas are all in a state of retreat. The Khumbu Glacier, which is one of the main routes to the base of Mount Everest, has retreated 5 km (3.1 miles) since 1953. The Rongbuk Glacier, draining the north side of Mount Everest into Tibet, has been retreating 20 m (65 ft) per year. In India the Gangotri Glacier, which is a significant source of water for the Ganges River, retreated 34 m (111 ft) per year between 1970 and 1996, and has averaged a loss of 30 m (100 ft) per year since 2000. With the retreat of glaciers in the Himalayas, a number of glacial lakes have been created. A growing concern is the potential for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods—researchers estimate 20 glacial lakes in Nepal and 24 in Bhutan pose hazards to human populations should their terminal moraine dams fail. One glacial lake identified as potentially hazardous is Bhutan's Raphstreng Tsho, which measured 1.6 km (0.99 mile) long, 0.96 km (0.59 mile) wide and was 80 m (262 ft) deep in 1986. By 1995 the lake had swollen to be 1.94 km (1.20 mile) long, 1.13 km (0.70 mile) wide and a depth of 107 m (351 ft). In 1994 a GLOF from Luggye Tsho, a glacial lake adjacent to Raphstreng Tsho, killed 23 people downstream.(UNEP)
In the Tien Shan mountains, which Kyrgyzstan shares with China and Kazakhstan, studies in the northern potions of that mountain range show that the glaciers that help supply water to this arid region have been losing nearly two cubic km (0.47 mile³) of ice per year between 1955 and 2000. The University of Oxford study also reported that an average of 1.28% of the volume of these glaciers had been lost per year between 1974 and 1990.(Kirby)
Several glaciers, notably the much visited Fox and Franz Josef Glaciers in New Zealand, have periodically advanced, especially during the 1990s, but the scale of these advances is small when compared to 20th-century retreat. These large, rapidly flowing glaciers situated on steep slopes have been very reactive to small mass-balance changes. A few years of conditions favorable to glacier advance, such as increased snowfall and cooler temperatures, are rapidly echoed in a corresponding advance, followed by equally rapid retreat when those favorable conditions end.(USGS3) The glaciers that have been advancing in a few locations in New Zealand have been doing so due to a temporary weather change associated with El Nino, which has brought more precipitation and cloudier, cooler summers since 2002.(Goodenough)
Western hemisphereNorth American glaciers are primarily located along the spine of the Rocky Mountains in the United States and Canada, and the Pacific Coast Ranges extending from northern California to Alaska. While Greenland is geologically associated with North America, it is also a part of the Arctic region. Aside from the few tidewater glaciers such as Taku Glacier, that are in the advance stage of their tidewater glacier cycle prevalent along the coast of Alaska, virtually all the glaciers of North America are in a state of retreat. The observed retreat rate has increased rapidly since approximately 1980, and overall each decade since has seen greater rates of retreat than the preceding one. There are also small remnant glaciers scattered throughout the Sierra Nevada mountains of California and Nevada. The Cascade Range of western North America extends from southern British Columbia in Canada to northern California. Excepting Alaska, about half of the glacial area in the U.S. is contained in the more than 700 glaciers of the North Cascades, a portion of the range between the Canadian border and I-90 in central Washington. These glaciers store as much water as that contained in all the lakes and reservoirs in the rest of the state, and provide much of the stream and river flow in the dry summer months, approximating some 870,000 m³ (1,140,000 yd³). As recently as 1975, many North Cascade glaciers were advancing due to cooler weather and increased precipitation that occurred from 1944 to 1976. However, by 1987 all the North Cascade glaciers were retreating, and the pace of the glacier retreat has increased each decade since the mid-1970s. Between 1984 and 2005, the North Cascade glaciers lost an average of more than 12.5 m in thickness and between 20% and 40% of their volume.(Pelto)
Researchers believe that by the year 2030, the vast majority of glacial ice in Glacier National Park will be gone unless current climate patterns reverse their course.(USGS5)
Research between 1950 and 1999 demonstrated that the glaciers in Bridger-Teton National Forest and Shoshone National Forest in the Wind River Range shrank by over a third of their size during that period. Photographs indicate that the glaciers today are only half the size as when first photographed in the late 1890s. Research also indicates that the glacial retreat was proportionately greater in the 1990s than in any other decade over the last 100 years. Gannett Glacier on the northeast slope of Gannett Peak is the largest single glacier in the Rocky Mountains south of Canada. It has reportedly lost over 50% of its volume since 1920, with almost half of that loss occurring since 1980. Glaciologists believe the remaining glaciers in Wyoming will disappear by the middle of the 21st century if the current climate patterns continue.(WWRDSL)
In the Canadian Rockies, the glaciers are generally larger and more widespread than they are to the south in Montana. One of the more accessible glaciers in the Canadian Rockies is the Athabasca Glacier, which is an outlet glacier of the 325 km² (125 miles²) Columbia Icefield. The Athabasca Glacier has retreated 1500 m (4,921 ft) since the late 19th century. The rate of retreat for this glacier has increased since 1980, following a period of slow retreat from 1950 to 1980. The Peyto Glacier in Alberta covers an area of about 12 km² (4.63 miles²), and retreated rapidly during the first half of the 20th century, stabilized by 1966, and resumed shrinking in 1976.(CCIN) Illecillewaet Glacier in British Columbia's Glacier National Park (Canada) has retreated 2 km (1.25 miles) since first photographed in 1887. There are thousands of glaciers in Alaska, though only a relative few of them have been named. The Columbia Glacier near Valdez in Prince William Sound has retreated 15 km (9.3 miles) in the last 25 years. Icebergs calved off this glacier were a partial cause of the Exxon Valdez oil spill, as the oil tanker had changed course to avoid the icebergs. The Valdez Glacier is in the same area, and though it does not calve, it has also retreated significantly. "A 2005 aerial survey of Alaskan coastal glaciers identified more than a dozen glaciers, many former tidewater and calving glaciers, including Grand Plateau, Alsek, Bear, and Excelsior Glaciers that are rapidly retreating. Of 2,000 glaciers observed, 99% are retreating." (Molnia2) Icy Bay in Alaska is fed by three large glaciers—Guyot, Yahtse, and Tyndall Glaciers—all of which have experienced a loss in length and thickness and, consequently, a loss in area. Tyndall Glacier became separated from the retreating Guyot Glacier in the 1960s and has retreated 24 km (14.9 miles) since, averaging more than 500 m (1,640 ft) per year.(Molnia)
The mean annual balance for this glacier was −0.23 m (−0.75 ft) each year during the period of 1957 to 1976. Mean annual balance has been increasingly negatively averaging −1.04 m (−3.4 ft) per year from 1990 to 2005. Repeat glacier altimetry, or altitude measuring, for 67 Alaska glaciers find rates of thinning have increased by more than a factor of two when comparing the periods from 1950 to 1995 (0.7 m [2.3 ft] per year) and 1995 to 2001 (1.8 m [5.9 ft] per year).(Arendt, et alia)
This is a systemic trend with loss in mass equating to loss in thickness, which leads to increasing retreat—the glaciers are not only retreating, but they are also becoming much thinner. In Denali National Park, the terminus of the Toklat Glacier has been retreating 24 m (78 ft) per year and the Cantwell Glacier 10 m (32 ft) per year.(Pelto5)
Well documented in Alaska are surging glaciers that have been known to rapidly advance, even as much as 100 m (333 ft) per day, though the reasons they do this is not fully understood. (Pedersen)
Varigated, Black Rapids, Muldrow, Susitna and Yanert are examples of surging glaciers in Alaska that have made rapid advances in the past. These glaciers are all retreating overall, punctuated by short periods of advance. A large region of population surrounding the central and southern Andes of Argentina and Chile reside in arid areas that are dependant on water supplies from melting glaciers. The water from the glaciers also supplies rivers that have in some cases been dammed for hydroelectric power. Some researchers believe that by 2030, many of the large ice caps on the highest Andes will be gone if current climate trends continue. In Patagonia on the southern tip of the continent, the large ice caps have retreated a full kilometer (0.6 miles) since the early 1990s and 10 km (6.2 miles) since the late 1800s. It has also been observed that Patagonian glaciers are receding at a faster rate than in any other region in the world.(BBC2) The Northern Patagonian Ice Field lost 93 km² (35 miles²) of glacier area during the years between 1945 and 1975, and 174 km² (67 miles²) from 1975 to 1996, which indicates that the rate of retreat is increasing. The Southern Patagonia Ice Sheet has exhibited a general trend of retreat on 42 glaciers, while four glaciers were in equilibrium and two advanced during the years between 1944 and 1986. The largest retreat was on Glacier O’Higgins, which during the period 1896–1995 retreated 14.6 km (9 miles). The Perito Moreno Glacier is 30 km (18 mile) long and is a major outflow glacier of the Patagonian ice sheet, as well as the most visited glacier in Patagonia. Perito Moreno Glacier is presently in equilibrium, but has undergone frequent oscillations in the period 1947–96, with a net gain of 4.1 km (2.5 miles). This glacier has advanced since 1947, and has been essentially stable since 1992. Perito Moreno Glacier is one of three glaciers in Patagonia known to have advanced, compared to several hundred others in retreat.(Skvarca and Naruse)
Polar regionsDespite their proximity and importance to human populations, the mountain and valley glaciers of tropical and mid-latitude glaciers amount to only a small fraction of glacial ice on the Earth. About 99% of all freshwater ice is in the great ice sheets of polar and subpolar Antarctica and Greenland. These continuous continental-scale ice sheets, 3 km (1.8 miles) or more in thickness, cap much of the polar and subpolar land masses. Like rivers flowing from an enormous lake, numerous outlet glaciers transport ice from the margins of the ice sheet to the ocean. The northern Atlantic island nation of Iceland is home to the Vatnajökull, which is the largest ice cap in Europe. The Breiðamerkurjökull Glacier is one of the Vatnajökull outlet glaciers, and had receded by as much as 2 km (1.2 miles) between 1973 and 2004. In the early 20th century, Breiðamerkurjökull extended to within 250 m (820 ft) of the ocean, but by 2004 Breiðamerkurjökull's terminus had retreated three kilometers (1.86 miles) further inland. This glacier retreat exposed a rapidly expanding lagoon that is filled with icebergs calved from its front. The lagoon is 110 m (360 ft) deep and nearly doubled its size between 1994 and 2004. All but one of the Vatnajökull outlet glaciers, roughly 40 named glaciers in all, were receding as of 2000.(Hall) In Iceland, of 34 glaciers studied between 1995 and 2000, 28 were found to be retreating, four were stable and two were advancing.(WGMS2)
The Canadian Arctic islands have a number of substantial ice caps, including Penny and Barnes Ice Cap on Baffin Island, Bylot Ice Cap on Bylot Island, and Devon Ice Cap on Devon Island. All of these ice caps have been thinning and receding slowly. The Barnes and Penny ice caps on Baffin Island have been thinning at over 1 m (3.1 ft) per year in the lower elevations from 1995 to 2000. Overall, between 1995 and 2000, ice caps in the Canadian Arctic lost 25 km³ (6 miles³) of ice per year.(Abdalati) Between 1960 and 1999, the Devon Ice Cap lost 67 km³ (16 miles³) of ice, mainly through thinning. All major outlet glaciers along the eastern Devon Ice Cap margin have retreated 1–3 km (0.6–1.8 miles) since 1960.(Burgess and Sharpa)
On the Hazen Plateau of Ellesmere Island, the Simmon Ice Cap has lost 47% of its area since 1959.(Braun, et alia)
If the current climatic conditions continue, the remaining glacial ice on the Hazen Plateau will be gone around 2050. Arctic islands north of Norway, Finland and Russia have all shown evidence of glacier retreat. In the Svalbard archipelago, the island of Spitsbergen has numerous glaciers. Research indicates that Hansbreen Glacier on Spitsbergen retreated 1.4 km (0.87 miles) from 1936 to 1982 and another 400 m (1,312 ft) during the 16-year period from 1982 to 1998.(Glowacki) Blomstrandbreen, a glacier in the King's Bay area of Spitsbergen, has retreated approximately 2 km (1.24 miles) in the past 80 years. Since 1960 the average retreat of Blomstrandbreen has been about 35 m (114 ft) a year, and this average was enhanced due to an accelerated rate of retreat since 1995.(Greenpeace)
Similarly, the Midre Lovenbreen Glacier retreated 200 m (656 ft) between 1977 and 1995.(Rippin, et alia)
In the Novaya Zemlya archipelago north of Russia, research indicates that in 1952 there was 208 km (129 miles) of glacier ice along the coast. By 1993 this had been reduced by 8% to 198 km (123 miles) of glacier coastline.(Aleksey)
The Climate of Antarctica is one of intense cold and great aridity. Most of the world's freshwater ice is contained in the great ice sheets that cover the continent of Antarctica. The most dramatic example of glacier retreat on the continent is the loss of large sections of the Larsen Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula. Ice shelves are not stable when surface melting occurs, and the collapse of Larsen Ice Shelf has been caused by warmer melt season temperatures that have led to surface melting and the formation of shallow ponds of water on the ice shelf. The Larsen Ice Shelf lost 2,500 km² (965 miles²) of its area from 1995 to 2001. In a 35-day period beginning on 31 January 2002, about 3,250 km² (1,254 miles²) of shelf area disintegrated. The ice sheet is now 40% the size of its previous minimum stable extent.(NSaIDC2) Recent studies by the British Antarctic Survey have anticipated a potential breakup of the George VI Ice Shelf due to warming ocean currents resulting from global warming.(Bentley & Hodgson)
This same pattern of thinning and accelerated retreat is evident on the neighboring Thwaites Glacier. Additionally, the Dakshin Gangotri Glacier, a small outlet glacier of the Antarctic ice sheet, receded at an average rate of 0.7 m (2.2 ft) per year from 1983 to 2002. On the Antarctic Peninsula, which is the only section of Antarctica that extends well north of the Antarctic Circle, there are hundreds of retreating glaciers. In one study of 244 glaciers on the peninsula, 212 have retreated an average of 600 m (1,968 ft) from where they were when first measured in 1953.(AAAS)
The greatest retreat was seen in Sjogren Glacier, which is now 13 km (8 miles) further inland than where it was in 1953. There are 32 glaciers that were measured to have advanced; however, these glaciers showed only a modest advance averaging 300 meters (984 ft) per glacier, which is significantly smaller than the massive retreat observed.(BBC3)
Impacts of glacier retreatThe continued retreat of glaciers will have a number of different quantitative impacts. In areas that are heavily dependent on water runoff from glaciers that melt during the warmer summer months, a continuation of the current retreat will eventually deplete the glacial ice and substantially reduce or eliminate runoff. A reduction in runoff will affect the ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs replenished. This situation is particularly acute for irrigation in South America, where numerous artificial lakes are filled almost exclusively by glacial melt.(BBC) Central Asian countries have also been historically dependent on the seasonal glacier melt water for irrigation and drinking supplies. In Norway, the Alps, and the Pacific Northwest of North America, glacier runoff is important for hydropower. Some of this retreat has resulted in efforts to slow down the loss of glaciers in the Alps. To retard melting of the glaciers used by certain Austrian ski resorts, portions of the Stubai and Pitztal Glaciers were covered with plastic. In Switzerland plastic sheeting is also used to reduce the melt of glacial ice used as ski slopes.(ENN) While covering glaciers with plastic sheeting may prove advantageous to ski resorts on a small scale, this practice is not expected to be economically practical on a much larger scale. Many species of freshwater and saltwater plants and animals are dependent on glacier-fed waters to ensure a cold water habitat that they have adapted to. Some species of freshwater fish need cold water to survive and to reproduce, and this is especially true with Salmon and Cutthroat trout. Reduced glacier runoff can lead to insufficient stream flow to allow these species to thrive. Ocean krill, a cornerstone species, prefer cold water and are the primary food source for aquatic mammals such as the Sperm whale.(CBS) Alterations to the ocean currents, due to increased freshwater inputs from glacier melt, and the potential alterations to thermohaline circulation of the worlds oceans, may impact existing fisheries upon which humans depend as well. The potential for major sea level rise is mostly dependant on a significant melting of the polar ice caps of Greenland and Antarctica, as this is where the vast majority of glacial ice is located. The British Antarctic Survey has determined from climate modeling that for at least the next 50 years, snowfall on the continent of Antarctica should continue to exceed glacial losses from global warming. The amount of glacial loss on the continent of Antarctica is not increasing significantly, and it is not known if the continent will experience a warming or a cooling trend, although the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed in recent years, causing glacier retreat in that region.(BAS) If all the ice on the polar ice caps were to melt away, the oceans of the world would rise an estimated 70 m (229 ft). However, with little major melt expected in Antarctica, sea level rise of not more than 0.5 m (1.6 ft) is expected through the 21st century, with an average annual rise of 0.0004 m (0.0013 ft) per year. Thermal expansion of the world's oceans will contribute, independent of glacial melt, enough to double those figures.(NSIDC2)
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